2004/01/16

Technology in Society: Predicting the market evolution of computers: was the revolution really unforeseen

Schnaars, S. P. e Carvalho, S. (2004). Predicting the market evolution of computers: was the revolution really unforeseen Abstract: "This is a study of how people viewed the future prospects for computers from their inception in the mid-1940s to their establishment as an unequivocal market success in 1964. Based on a reading of the published record it compares two hypotheses, one that holds that no one foresaw the tremendous potential of computers-an error of under guessing-the other that holds that most market forecasts are far too optimistic, a error of over guessing. It concludes that only before 1950 did experts fail to foresee the ways in which computers would change our lives. After that date, expectations soared saved only by the fact the sales likewise soared." [Pois é... mais uma vez, através do PedroF, que sendo jornalista, um dia destes ainda recebe um prémio pelo que tem feito em nome da divulgação da ciência com as suas entradas da «TECNOSFERA».]

Ao computador, tal como aconteceu com outras ferramentas, não se previu que viesse a ter um papel tão importante. Haverá aqui algum paralelismo, em menor escala, com a utilização dos Weblogs, nomeadamente na sua implementação ao nível Organizacional?...

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